Saturday, July 14, 2012

Echo boomer impact on the home buying market


So the question becomes, why is this so?  I believe is is the easier access to borrowing.  Our parents, and my generation were much more likely to save up to buy, than to purchase a home with very little downpayment.  The relaxed lending standards have helped get more people in homes, but at the same time, with house prices so at risk to market swings, the echo boomers have much more to lose in a downturn,a nd perhaps in many ways may be contributing to the current low pricing in the market?


Report: Pay Attention to the Echo Boomers

The echo boomers — those born between the late 1970s and early 1990s — are expected to help drive a housing market recovery in the coming years, according to a new report by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. 
Already, this generation is outpacing the number of baby boomers who at the same age were home owners. Studies show that about 900,000 households are made up of echo-boomer home owners, which compares to 500,000 baby boomers who owned homes at the same point in their lives. 
About 31 percent of echo boomers have already made a recent home purchase, according to data from the National Association of REALTORS®. 
That number is expected to grow, according to housing analysts. About 5 million echo boomers turn 21 every year. According to KCM, a market and real estate commentator, echo boomers will likely add 1 million new households per year over the next decade. 
Source: “Echo Boomers Are Becoming a Contributing Factor to Housing Recovery,” Business Insider (July 11, 2012)

Will hiring that requires relocation pick up with news like this?


I was reading through the daily real estate news yesterday and this article caught my eye.  Having been in the job market for quite a while, I was told several times, even by John Tesh, that companies were looking to hire people already working, rather than those unemployed currently.  Because these employees are often found in other parts of the country, the ability to recruit and hire them has been hampered by the barriers related to the sale of the current home.

This is a major impediment, the cost of relocating, with so many homeowners underwater due to lower initial down payment requirements.  However, if homeowners get a renewed sense of optimism, we could see a greater willingness to move, impacting the jobs market with the subsequent trickle down impact on unemployment.  This would possibly be due to the unshackling of the homeowner from his or her perception of loss.  In the real estate world, there is still a reluctance by many people to take less than they paid for their homes.  This is actually one factor impacting the rise in home sale prices.  So many of those whose houses who lost value are holding on, while those in more profitable areas of the country are selling.  Higher end homes are also selling.

The real questions still remain unanswered, but there are some words coming out of the real estate business that says the market has hit bottom, and is on the way up.  This, combined with record low mortgage rates may create a situation where the average days on market will decrease.  Mitigating this somewhat is the fact that many of the backlogged foreclosures have begun processing, meaning a possible glut of these homes by early next year.

What does this mean for you as an employer seeking to bring in the best talent from outside?  Well, first, I would recommend using as many analytic tools and good interviewing techniques as possible to assure yourself of a desirable candidate.  Then, you might consider a guarantee on the sale of their home.  Give them the money to pay six months of mortgage or rent payments in the new city, then agree to purchase their home at market value after the time is up.  Make this arrangement prior to their signing with a real estate agent, so that you would not have to pay the commission if their six months with the agent expires. My company can assist you with this plan should you be interested.

Bottom line, if ever there was a time to make a riskier offer to hire from afar this might be it.

DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | FRIDAY, JULY 13, 2012
Rebounding home prices are lowering the number of home owners who are considered “underwater” on their mortgage, according to a new report by CoreLogic.

More than 700,000 home owners are no longer considered “underwater,” owing more on their mortgage than their home is currently worth.

At the end of March, 23.7 percent — or 11.4 million — of home owners with mortgages were considered underwater on their mortgage, according to CoreLogic’s latest report. Three months prior, that percentage was 25.2 percent, or 12.1 million home owners.

Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist, attributes the decrease to recent gains in home prices, a drop in for-sale inventory, and fewer distressed sales, which are all helping more home owners see the values of their houses increase.

About 1.9 million home owners were 5 percent underwater during the first quarter. If prices continue to inch upward, these owners are expected to climb out of underwater territory, according to CoreLogic.

"While the overall stagnating economic recovery will likely slow [the] housing market recovery in the second half of this year, reducing the number of underwater households is an important step toward reducing future mortgage default risk," Fleming says.

Source: “700,000 Home Owners no Longer Underwater on Mortgages,” CNNMoney (July 12, 2012)

Friday, July 13, 2012

What does the foreclosure risk mean about home sales timing?

Recent wire reports indicate that Banks have finally caught up with the mess they created around foreclosure activity a year ago.  Because of paperwork mistakes and carelessness, many homes that could and should have been foreclosed on in 2011 held out into this year.  The banks have begun preparing to place a new wave of these foreclosed houses on the market, probably by early next year.  In June, the number of houses entering the foreclosure process increased on an annual basis for the second month in a row.

A glut of foreclosed houses added to the market will likely exert downward pressure again on home prices, making the purchasing of a house even more cost effective, but importantly, bought to live in long term, not as an investment.  There is no indication of a rapid rise in home prices that would make adding a foreclosed home an investment diamond.

Now, for those of you who are considering selling your home in the next year or so, you should think about a couple of things.  First, if you have enough equity to get through the sales process, there should be some very good value homes on the market entering next year.  Secondly, if you wait until the early part of next year to sell, you may be faced with a lower market price than if you sell before the foreclosed homes hit.  Third, if you have the patience to wait, begin adding $50 per month to your house payment to increase the equity in your home.  Accelerate the pay-down of any second mortgages, with a plan to get them off your books within 18 to 24 months if possible.  Then, when it becomes clear that the real estate market is cycling back up, you will be in a much better position to sell with equity available for your next purchase.

At least that is my opinion.  What do you think?

If you would like a free competitive market analysis, to get an idea of what your home is worth right now, let me know and I will arrange for you to have this done.

If Mortgage rates are so low, why aren't people buying?

According to recent wire reports, the 30 year mortgage rate is now 3.56 percent, and 15 year mortgages, a good refinancing option are now down to 2.86%, a new record.

So why aren't people rushing out to buy houses with these great numbers?  Well, first off, which houses would they buy.  Existing homes that would a desirable step up are in many cases owned by people who are not ready to put their houses on the market until they appraise higher.  Additionally, in order to buy a new house, those who would move up have to sell theirs, and while there are many potential first home buyers, those who started out with 80-97% mortgages may have negative equity in their homes, much less the funds available to pay for the real estate commissions and other selling expenses.  Buyers continue to demand help with closing costs as well as continuing to push other transactional costs onto the seller to reduce their out of pocket expenses.

So, what must change?  In my opinion, a conscious decision by those with enough equity to sell at a profit, no matter how small, to sell the home they are ready to leave, and go ahead and purchase their next home with a reasonable down payment from savings.  This decision is not easily made with strict financial calculations, it is going to be about long term contentment.

Monday, April 9, 2012

Questions for Strategic Imagination

So, you are in business, and your company has a strategic plan?  What is the thing that you find most challenging about it?  What would you like to be different?  What is the question, where if you had an answer, could change the success rate of your organization?  Wisdom Selling would like the opportunity to address your question.  Please like us on Facebook and enter your questions, or join our group on Linkedin.

The more practice we have in applying this technique, the better our ultimate product offering will be.

Thanks.

Using Imagination in Strategic Planning - Introduction

Does your plan give you enough room for flexibility? Is there any opportunity for you to reach your destination in another way than the specific roadmap you have written down?  Imagine if the only way to get from your town to another, such as from Spartanburg to Greenville was the Interstate, and you knew you had to be there in the 33 minutes. This should be no problem, right, because that's how long Google map says it takes to get there. So you tell your most important customer that you're going to be in Greenville in 35 minutes, and you take off down the interstate.

A friend of mine had a meeting in Greenville the other day, and as he was heading down the interstate, a truck coming the other way hit a sign which stretched all the way across the interstate knocking it down.  The sign was blocking traffic in all six lanes of traffic, three in each direction. My friend was just past the previous exit and not able to reach the next exit, so he was stuck on the interstate for an hour and a half. He ended up having to cancel his seminar and send 30 potential customers back home.  He had no flexibility or other options.  He couldn't imagine or create a different route, because he never been to Greenville before and all he knew was the interstate.

Now those of us who've lived here a while know that you can take Highway 29, or a myriad of other back roads and end up in Greenville as long as time is not the critical factor. Any time you travel on Highway 29 you know you're going to have 30 stoplights to navigate, and there is a random number of times you'll get green and time to get red.  I say it's random but I actually believe that the red lights are timed to match how much of a hurry we are in. I know they get me every time I'm in a rush.

You might look at the trip from Spartanburg to Greenville and think it is just crazy that the only way you allow yourself to get there is the Interstate. You would certainly know the other ways, or you would have a map that showed multiple routes to get there, and since you have been there before, you wouldn't commit to a time that didn't allow you to deal with any risk any traffic any slowdowns, or anything that might delay you like a phone call where you have to pull over and look up some information in a notebook you carrying with you.
We would not commit to do something that doesn't make sense from a trip standpoint, and yet we as company leaders often plan our future - the next 12 months or the next 24 months - as if there's only one way for success to happen. The organization will sell a certain amount, at a certain margin and at a certain price to a certain group of customers beating a certain group of competitors to the punch and everything they do will be sustainable. The organization is confident the market will not change and are confident that they will get all the business that they need out of this deal.

The reality of strategic planning is that anything we’re looking at for the future is full of unpredictability. The science of risk management is all about mitigating your risk by planning for different scenarios. Strategic Imagination is the same process, in that we use our imagination to come up with alternative scenarios, multiple paths to success and ways to hedge our bets for maximum success opportunity. We know that success in itself can be defined in a number of ways for almost any company.  We don't necessarily have to give our plan goals one set of criteria and consider ourselves successful only if we hit those criteria in the time frame allotted. Can you imagine your company as successful, with a different set of goals than you currently have today? Can you imagine reach your goals in a shorter or longer period of time than you have given the company to do so? Can you imagine having a set of shareholder benefits of working with your company that can vary, based on what you need them to be, in order for the company to be most successful? Would you want to give your shareholders a dividend when you need that money to reinvest, or would you want to give your shareholders a dividend so that they will continue to buy and keep this help the share price up, so that you can sell shares and generate capital for the company?

There are all sorts of options out there for strategic success, but we need to be able to dream a bit in order make them reality. And that's what Strategic Imagination is all about. Stay tuned for more and send us your strategy questions.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Definitions of Strategy that are already out there.

DEFINITIONS OF STRATEGY FROM THE BUSINESS WORLD

BizShift-Trends is a blog from www.biztrends.com, a strategic sales organization.  I was sent this link, and I think you would find it beneficial as well, as we continue the debate of what strategy is.  This is one of the best compilations of definitions of strategy and all credit goes to BizShift.  At the bottom of this article is the link to their blog.

Without a strategy it is highly unlikely you will achieve your goals – this is true not only in business but in just about any aspect of life. ~Alastair Hyde
Strategy and tactics together straddle the gap between ‘ends and means’. In short, strategy is a term that refers to a complex web of thoughts, ideas, insights, experiences, goals, expertise, memories, perceptions, and expectations that provides general guidance for specific actions in pursuit of particular ‘ends’. Strategy is the course we chart, the journey we imagine and, at the same time, it is the course we steer, the trip we actually make. Even when we are embarking on a voyage of discovery, with no particular destination in mind, the voyage has a purpose, an outcome, an ‘end’ to be kept in view. Strategy, then, has no existence apart from the ‘ends’ sought. It is a general framework that provides guidance for actions to be taken and, at the same time, is shaped by the actions taken. This means that the necessary precondition for formulating strategy is a clear and widespread understanding of the ‘ends’ to be obtained. Without these ‘ends’ in view, action is purely tactical and can quickly degenerate into nothing more than a flailing about.
The writer and consultant, ‘Leanne Hoagland Smith’ wrote an interesting example that demonstrates the concept, as follows: Just think about a recent driving experience into a previously unknown traveled route without a GPS (Global Positioning System). As you are driving you find road construction that keeps you from exiting and now you must travel to the next exit, follow the sometimes ambiguous detour signs on probably less than ideal secondary roads until you finally reach your intended destination. So, what does this have to do with strategy or even business results?  How do you know where you are in your business compared to where you want to be, and more importantly are you taking the right actions to get there? The GPS for your business is really a ‘Goal Planning System’. Each goal is a point on the map (think action plan) that brings you closer to your desired results. Without this plan, you are engaged in the role of ‘Captain Wing-It’, instead of ‘Captain Focus-It’. You are ‘spraying and praying’ your actions all over the place with the hope, fervent hope I might add, that something will stick. This is also called working harder not smarter. Maybe it’s time to activate your own strategy, because the research shows that driving by the seat of your pants in today’s global marketplace just doesn’t work.
In the article “Strategy, Strategic Management, Strategic Planning, and Strategic Thinking” by Fred Nichols writes: Strategy is a word with many meanings and all of them are relevant and useful to those who are charged with setting strategy for their corporations, businesses, or organizations. Here are a few definitions of strategy offered by various writers:
Strategy According to ‘B. H. Liddell Hart’: In his book ‘Strategy’, he examines wars and battles from the time of the ancient Greeks through World War II. He concludes that ‘Carl Von Clausewitz’s’ definition of strategy as ‘the art of the employment of battles as a means to gain the object of war’ is seriously flawed in that this view of strategy intrudes upon policy and makes battle the only means of achieving strategic ends. Then, ‘Liddell Hart’ arrives at this short definition of strategy: ‘the art of distributing and applying military means to fulfill the ends of policy’. Deleting the word ‘military’ from Liddell Hart’s definition makes it easy to export the concept of strategy to the business world.
Strategy According to ‘George Steiner’: Generally considered a key figure in the origins and development of strategic planning. His book ‘Strategic Planning’, is close to being a bible on the subject. Yet, Steiner does not bother to define strategy except in the notes at the end of his book. There, he notes that strategy entered the management literature as a way of referring to what one did to counter a competitor’s actual or predicted moves. Steiner also points out in his notes that there is very little agreement as to the meaning of strategy in the business world. Some of the definitions in use to which Steiner pointed include the following:
·         Strategy refers to basic directional decisions; purposes and missions.
·         Strategy consists of the important actions necessary to realize these directions.
·         Strategy answers the question: What should the organization be doing?
·         Strategy answers the question: What are the ‘ends’ and how should we achieve them?

Strategy According to ‘Henry Mintzberg’: He argues that strategy emerges over time as intentions collide with and accommodate a changing reality. Thus, one might start with a perspective and conclude that it calls for a certain position, which is to be achieved by way of a carefully crafted plan, with the eventual outcome and strategy reflected in a pattern evident in decisions and actions over time. This pattern in decisions and actions defines what Mintzberg called ‘realized’ or emergent strategy. In his book, ‘The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning’, points out that people use ‘strategy’ in several different ways, the most common being these four:
·         Strategy is a plan, a ‘how’, a means of getting from here-to-there.
·         Strategy is a pattern in actions over time; e.g., using a ‘high end’ strategy.
·         Strategy is position; offering particular products or services in particular markets.
·         Strategy is perspective; vision and direction.
Strategy According to ‘Kenneth Andrews’: In his book ‘The Concept of Corporate Strategy’, he says;  corporate strategy is the pattern of decisions in a company that determines and reveals its objectives, purposes, or goals; produces the principal policies and plans for achieving those goals; defines the range of business that the company is to pursue; the kind of economic and human organization it is or intends to be; and, the nature of the economic and non-economic contribution it intends to make to its shareholders, employees, customers, and communities. Andrews draws a distinction between ‘corporate strategy’, which determines the businesses in which a company will compete, and ‘business strategy’, which defines the basis of competition for a given business.
Strategy According to ‘Michael Porter’: He argues that competitive strategy is ‘about being different’. He adds; ‘it means deliberately choosing a different set of activities to deliver a unique mix of value’. In short, Porter argues that strategy is about ‘competitive position’, about differentiating yourself in the eyes of the customer, about adding value through a mix of activities different from those used by competitors. In his earlier book, Porter defines competitive strategy as ‘a combination of the ‘ends’ (goals) for which the firm is striving and the ‘means’ (policies) by which it is seeking to get there’. Thus, Porter seems to embrace strategy as both ‘plan and position’. (Note: Porter writes about competitive strategy, not about strategy in general.)
Strategy According to ‘Kepner-Tregoe’: In their book ‘Top Management Strategy’, they define strategy as ‘the framework which guides those choices that determine the nature and direction of an organization’. Ultimately, this boils down to selecting products (or services) to offer and the markets in which to offer them. ‘Tregoe and Zimmerman’ urge executives to base these decisions on a single ‘driving force’ of the business. Although there are nine possible driving forces, only one can serve as the basis for strategy for a given business. The nine possibilities are listed: products offered, market needs, technology, production capability, method of sale, method of distribution, natural resources, size/growth, return/profit.  It seems ‘Tregoe and Zimmerman’ takes the position that strategy is essentially a matter of perspective.
Strategy According to ‘Michel Robert’: In his book ‘Strategy Pure & Simple’, he argues that the real issues are ‘strategic management’ and ‘thinking strategically’. For Robert, this boils down to decisions pertaining to four factors: products and services, customers, market segments, geographic areas. Like ‘Tregoe and Zimmerman’, Robert claims that decisions about which products and services to offer, the customers to be served, the market segments in which to operate, and the geographic areas of operations should be made on the basis of a single ‘driving force’. Like ‘Tregoe and Zimmerman’, Robert claims that several possible driving forces exist but only one can be the basis for strategy. The 10 driving forces cited by Robert are: product-service, user-customer, market type, production capacity/capability, technology, sales/marketing method, distribution method, natural resources, size/growth, return/profit.
Strategy According to ‘Treacy and Wiersema’: In the book ‘The Discipline of Market Leaders’, they assert that companies achieve leadership positions by narrowing, not broadening their business focus. ‘Treacy and Wiersema’ identify three ‘value-disciplines’ that can serve as the basis for strategy: operational excellence, customer intimacy, and product leadership. As with ‘driving forces’, only one of these value disciplines can serve as the basis for strategy. Each of the three value-disciplines suggests different requirements: ‘Operational excellence’ implies world-class marketing, manufacturing, and distribution processes. ‘Customer intimacy’ suggests staying close to the customer and entails long-term relationships. ‘Product leadership’ clearly hinges on market-focused R&D as well as organizational nimbleness and agility.
Although there are many similarities in the definitions above, there are also some important differences. We are left, then, with no clear-cut, widely accepted definition of strategy; only different views and opinions offered by different writers working different agendas. Then, what is strategy? Is it a plan? Does it refer to how we will obtain the ‘ends’ we seek? Is it ‘position’ taken? Just as military forces might take the high ground prior to engaging the enemy; might a business take the position of low-cost provider? Does strategy refer to perspective, to the view one takes of matters, and to the purposes, directions, decisions and actions stemming from this view? Or, does strategy refer to a pattern in our decisions and actions? For example, does repeatedly copying a competitor’s new product offerings signal a ‘me too’ strategy? So then; what is strategy? Strategy is all these; it is perspective, position, plan, and pattern. Strategy is the bridge between policy or high-order goals on the one hand, and tactics or concrete actions on the other. However, regardless of the definition of strategy, or the many factors affecting the choice of corporate or competitive strategy, there are some fundamental questions to be asked and answered. These relate to; mission & vision, objectives, competitive positioning…  So then; what is the definition of strategy? The quick response is that there is none; strategy is a broad, ambiguous topic. We must all come to our own understanding, definition, and meaning.